AGP Executive Report

Philippines Economy: Growth in the Marcos era is losing momentum, with Q2 2026 GDP rising just 2.3% as construction, investment and consumption weaken—raising fresh questions about governance as an economic drag. Singapore Telecoms: Analysts say Singapore’s telco price war is squeezing StarHub and Singtel Singapore earnings, strengthening the case for industry consolidation to stabilise mobile revenue. AI & Chips in Asia: NVIDIA has struck deals to build dedicated AI “factories” across Japan, while Ireland’s Oranmore is in the running for a major Analog Devices chip facility that could support AI processor manufacturing. Energy Security & Data Centres: Southeast Asia is seeing a surge in energy infrastructure deals as AI-driven data-centre demand and energy security urgency push governments to move faster. China Wealth Crackdown: China’s offshore tax push is forcing wealthy investors to reassess trust structures and holdings across Hong Kong and Singapore. Pakistan Agribusiness: The ADB warns Pakistan faces about US$2b in annual post-harvest losses from weak infrastructure and climate shocks. Philippines Sea Politics: Lawmakers are pushing to embed South China Sea claims into school curricula, aiming to build long-term public support. Cambodia Banking Stress: Cambodia’s property slump is worsening bank bad loans, with NPLs rising to 8.6% in 2025 and expected to climb further.

Autonomous Mobility: Pony.ai says robotaxi revenue surged to 81.92 million yuan in Q2 2026, up 691.2% year-on-year, with nearly 2,000 vehicles operating and plans for 4,000+ more—its first time passenger fares make up a third of total revenue. Digital Infrastructure: YTL Power and JLand will build a gigawatt-scale data centre campus at Johor’s Sedenak Tech Park West, with 58.6 hectares secured and options to expand to about 220 hectares, targeting up to 1.2GW capacity. Security & Defence Tech: A report projects the UAV jammers market will jump from USD 1.77b in 2026 to USD 5.90b by 2031, as low-cost drones spread across military and homeland security. Healthcare Markets: New market outlooks keep rolling in—from NASH biomarkers and non-invasive neurostimulation to NICU catheters—signalling continued investment in diagnostics and devices across Asia-Pacific. Business & Markets: New Zealand’s NZX 50 rose for a second day as investors weighed results and Middle East-linked demand risks, while Asia remains sensitive to oil and rates.

Markets & Rates: Wall Street slid again as long-dated bond yields hit multi-decade highs, dragging tech and chip stocks; Asia also wobbled with investors bracing for more earnings and a busy data calendar. US-Asia Security: Reports say US-South Korea drills could be cut by about half, while Trump pushes for a Kim Jong-un meeting this fall; China’s FM Wang Yi is set to visit Seoul for talks on the peninsula and bilateral issues. China-ROK & Diplomacy: A China envoy urged both sides to keep momentum in China-ROK ties as Seoul and Beijing look ahead to next steps before APEC in Shenzhen. Payments & Trade Tech: Hong Kong’s yuan fast-payment use hit a six-month high, reflecting growing cross-border retail demand. Governance Watch: Asia Pacific led improvements in the Chandler Good Government Index, with Singapore top globally and China showing the biggest gains in leadership and foresight. Business & Energy: Copper supply concerns surfaced as the US holds most visible exchange inventory, while oil stays elevated amid West Asia uncertainty. Innovation for Resilience: Tokyo is turning extreme-weather preparedness into everyday systems, from AI flood-risk tools to mobile cold-chain support. Social & Finance: TikTok is exploring peer-to-peer money transfers via direct messages using TikTok Pay in parts of Southeast Asia. Regional Connectivity: Israel’s Haifa Port is positioning itself as a key link in the India–Middle East–Europe corridor.

Geopolitics & Energy: Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the Strait of Hormuz won’t reopen until the US lifts its naval blockade, cancels oil sanctions and unfreezes Iranian assets, as the US-Iran standoff keeps global shipping and oil markets on edge. Markets: India’s Sensex slid 493 points and Nifty fell for a sixth straight day as crude rose to about US$91 and West Asia hopes faded, while Malaysia’s Bursa Malaysia ended higher as investors rotated into commodity and plantation stocks. AI & Tech Infrastructure: HSBC says the Philippines could capture more of the AI boom by expanding semiconductor testing, assembly and packaging, while Malaysia urged responsible AI use and highlighted its fast-growing data centre investments. Cybersecurity: ABI Research warns IoT security is shifting from “trust me” vendor claims to board-level governance and documented accountability. Business & Deals: Trident Digital Tech and Digital Innovations Group formed a 50/50 JV to deploy an AI engine across Asia, the Middle East and Africa; Brookfield made another bid for Australia’s Reliance Worldwide; and Veefin partnered with NSIA Group to expand supply chain finance across five West African markets.

US-South Korea Security: Trump moves to substantially reduce joint drills with Seoul, citing Seoul’s lack of help on Iran and his rapport with Kim Jong Un—sparking fresh alarm about deterrence in Northeast Asia. Middle East Tensions: Iran says the US-Iran 60-day talks deadline is “irrelevant” after US violations, while oil prices climb on war risk. Markets: US stocks slip further from records as higher oil and bond yields pressure sentiment. Data Centres: New Zealand’s biggest data centre construction hits a milestone as Datagrid begins major works in Makarewa, despite local environmental concerns. Asia Tech & Payments: Xsolla adds 15+ local payment methods across Asia-Pacific and beyond, aiming to boost game sales without extra integrations. AI Adoption in Asia: Alibaba’s Qwen models top 3 billion downloads in six months, with hundreds of thousands of derivatives. Regional Governance & Safety: Thailand weighs linking Roblox to its national digital ID for age assurance. Environment & Labour: Bangladesh shipbreaking sees nine deaths after toxic gas exposure, highlighting safety gaps. Tourism Push: Cambodia launches a 2026-2030 plan to turn Phnom Penh into a regional tourism hub.

Southeast Asia Growth Watch: GDP growth slowed across several major economies in the April-June quarter, with Singapore at 5.9%, Indonesia 5.2%, the Philippines 2.3% and Thailand 1.9%, as Iran-linked disruptions weighed on consumption and production, while Vietnam (8.3%) and Malaysia (6%) held up better on strong consumer spending and AI/semiconductor-driven manufacturing. Malaysia FX & External Balance: Kenanga IB kept its ringgit forecast at RM3.95 per US dollar by year-end, citing resilient growth, a sustained current account surplus and record foreign-currency deposits, while also expecting Malaysia’s 2026 current account to stay in surplus at about 2.1% of GDP. Malaysia Economy Outlook: PublicInvest lifted its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 5.4% after a stronger 2Q print, pointing to resilient domestic demand and continued tech activity. Trade & Shipping Risk: India was urged to treat maritime insecurity as a persistent trade risk after the Red Sea disruption hit 1,000 days, raising freight, insurance and working-capital costs for exporters. Supply Chain & Payments: EBANX expanded senior leadership as it pushes deeper into emerging-market merchant services, while Sri Lanka was flagged in a White House report as a “microhub” in shifting global trade flows. Energy & Industry: Wilmar’s H1 profit rose on better soybean crushing in China and improved tropical oil refining margins. Tech & Policy: Trump’s tariff tweaks and drone tariff moves keep US-China tech decoupling in focus, while Singapore’s AI funding surge and new broadband subscriber growth in South and East Asia underline the region’s momentum. Business Deals: Madison Air Solutions agreed to buy Germany’s ebm-papst for $5.4 billion, expanding ventilation and air-quality capabilities into Europe and Asia.

Arctic Shipping Shift: After Hormuz, China is eyeing the Arctic’s “ice silk road” as Sea Legend starts scheduled northern sea route container service, cutting China–Europe transit time but raising environmental and political risks. Middle East Energy Pressure: Oil edges higher as Israel-Lebanon strikes and US moves on Iran keep Strait of Hormuz uncertainty alive, with markets bracing for tighter supply. AI Chips & US-China Tech Ties: US tech firms are reportedly testing Chinese memory chips from CXMT despite Pentagon blacklisting, underscoring how AI and data-centre demand is reshaping chip supply politics. Wealth & Markets: Asia’s wealth industry is hiring aggressively for client-facing roles, while Singapore’s equities lead APAC gains on bank wealth-management strength; investors also increasingly use brokerage AI tools to track tariff and portfolio moves. Regional Security Bloc: Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan sign the “Mecca” collective defence pact, signalling a realignment as confidence in US guarantees appears to fade. Health Milestone: Cambodia hits the 95-95-95 HIV targets, showing how leadership plus community partnerships can drive measurable outcomes. Singapore Liveability & Growth: Sentosa unveils the Greater Sentosa Master Plan, expanding the island playground and sanctuary over two decades.

US-China Tech Decoupling: Apple and other Western PC makers are reportedly testing Chinese memory chips from CXMT, even as the Pentagon blacklists the firm—an economic reality check on Washington’s containment push. India Healthcare Investment: IHH’s Fortis plans to nearly double hospital beds in India to about 10,000 by 2031, targeting growth across 12 states with funding via internal cash, debt for deals, and possible equity. Philippines Higher Education & AI: CHED calls for responsible AI use and stronger Asia-Pacific academic cooperation at a China-ASEAN education research meeting. South Asia Diplomacy: Bangladesh and India are discussing a possible Tarique Rahman visit to New Delhi, but Dhaka says the talks were derailed after Sheikh Hasina’s Aug 5 appearance. Nepal Diaspora Focus: NRNA youth leaders urge connecting second-generation Nepalis abroad to Nepal through skills, tech and investment, while former NRNA president Vinod Kunwar pushes for faster, more investor-friendly government processes. West Asia Security: Saudi, Turkey and Pakistan’s Mecca defence pact is framed as a NATO-like collective response, but not yet a full alliance. Energy & Trade: India sets maximum LPG output targets for refiners, with Reliance getting the biggest quota as Hormuz-linked import risks linger; Maersk lifts 2026 guidance again on port congestion easing and stronger container demand. Regional Conflict Watch: Yemen’s Houthis and government forces trade strikes around Mokha and Marib, raising fears the 2022 truce could unravel. Cyber Safety: A survey finds Thailand leads Asia-Pacific in cybercrime awareness, but threats are still rising as smartphone use for payments and shopping grows.

West Asia Energy Shock: Iran’s IRGC fired again toward the Strait of Hormuz as tanker incidents mount, tightening a chokepoint that carries a fifth to a quarter of global seaborne oil—Kenya and other fuel-importing economies are bracing for higher pump prices as stocks fall. Food Security Watch: JPMorgan warns the next global food crisis could be building, with “Five Ws” (war, weather, warehousing, water, waste) plus a potential historic El Niño and Hormuz disruptions keeping food inflation pressure into 1H27. South Asia Diplomacy Tension: India and Bangladesh are negotiating over ousted PM Sheikh Hasina’s statements and the planned visit by Bangladesh PM Tarique Rahman, with diplomats trying to cool bilateral chill. Taliban-US Reset: Afghanistan’s Taliban urged the U.S. to restore its Kabul embassy and invest in minerals, dams and roads, while stressing it does not back a return of U.S. troops. China-Asia Tech & Trade: China’s car sales boom overseas contrasts with slowing demand at home, while Beijing also condemned Japan’s Yasukuni shrine visit as a threat to post-war order. Markets & Currencies: A U.S.-Japan yen intervention failed to calm traders; analysts warn the yen carry trade could destabilise global finance. AI Ambition in Pakistan: Punjab set a target to become South Asia’s most AI-enabled province by 2029, with new AI governance and a delivery unit. Sports: Saudi Arabia arrived in Doha for the 3 Nations Friendly Games ahead of FIBA Asia qualifiers; New Zealand beat Bahrain in the U18 Asia Cup.

U.S.-China Tech Ties: Apple and other PC makers are reportedly testing Chinese memory chips from CXMT after “cartel” pricing squeezed margins, signalling a shift in how Western firms manage chip supply despite Pentagon blacklists. Malaysia Business & Travel: Gulf Air launches a Malaysia F1 Grand Prix package with fares from BD65 for MyKad holders, while ZUS Coffee weighs an IPO that could raise at least RM1b and target a mid-2027 Bursa Malaysia listing. Healthcare: Bangladesh PM Tarique Rahman urged rebuilding doctor-patient trust as he inaugurated a new 500-bed National Institute of Neurosciences and Hospital building. Regional Politics: South Korea’s President Lee Jae Myung called for talks to formally end the Korean War and curb North Korea’s nuclear programme. India at 80: Russia’s Putin congratulated India on Independence Day, praising “remarkable progress” and deepening ties. Aviation & Industry: Nestlé India plans its 10th Odisha factory, tying expansion to sustainability goals.

Markets & Energy: US and European shares slipped while oil rose as investors weighed tense US-Iran talks, weaker US retail sales and softer rate-hike expectations. US–China Tech Decoupling: The Pentagon-linked chip squeeze is pushing US tech firms toward Chinese suppliers like CXMT, signalling supply-chain and political strain. Trade & Security: Washington moved to impose up to 100% tariffs on imported drones, deepening the tech split with China. APEC Host City: China will hold APEC Senior Officials’ Meeting (SOM3) and related events in Dalian from Aug 17-28, with nearly 130 meetings and 2,300-plus representatives. Arctic Shipping: A Chinese firm plans a regular weekly container route through the Northern Sea Route to Europe until early October, raising concerns about polar ice impacts. Southeast Asia Economy: Southeast Asia’s “indulgence economy” is shifting toward “wear now, pay later” rules as the region’s luxury spending adapts to tighter liquidity. Digital Growth in Pakistan: Pakistan’s digital economy is moving from subsidised expansion to profitability as payments and platforms scale with better unit economics. Central Asia Power Glitch: Kyrgyzstan restored normal power after an isolated-mode disruption tied to Central Asia grid changes.

Philippines Investment Push: Clark is pitching itself as “Asia-Pacific’s next investment hub,” with Clark Freeport and the Clark Aviation Capital positioning the region for advanced manufacturing and AI-led growth. Malaysia Growth Outlook: Malaysia’s 2026 GDP is still seen growing around 4.8–5.4%, with 2Q growth at 6.0% and inflation contained at 1.9%, helped by targeted support amid West Asia shocks. Indonesia Economy: President Prabowo says Indonesia can hit 6% growth by end-2026, citing strong investment and job creation momentum. AI and Industry: Intuitive Surgical plans nearly US$500m investment in Penang over five years to expand robotic-assisted surgery manufacturing, aiming to employ at least 1,200 workers. Shipping and Trade Routes: A Chinese firm plans the first weekly container service through the Arctic’s Northern Sea Route to Europe, while Hormuz traffic remains disrupted after more ship attacks. Tech, Safety, and Culture: TikTok launches #ThinkTwice in the Philippines to promote safer online habits via family conversation tools. Corporate Moves: Diginex will hold an Oct 8 EGM to approve its acquisition of Resulticks.

ASEAN Tourism Push: Agoda and AirAsia MOVE team up with ASEAN on the “SEABlings: Closer Than You Think” campaign, rolling out updated regional branding that now reflects Timor-Leste’s entry into the bloc. AI Cybersecurity: A world-first autonomous “end-to-end” AI attack tied to Chinese hackers hit Taiwan, compromising government accounts and personnel records and striking energy and nuclear-safety targets. Data Centres & IPOs: Vantage Data Centres is in early talks for a potential IPO valuing it around US$100 billion, as other data-centre operators line up listings. Middle East Mobility: Qatar’s first electric car plant targets 2028 output, while flyadeal adds Mumbai as its second Indian gateway from Oct 3. Trade & Energy: DP World posts 13.1% H1 revenue growth to US$12.7b despite Middle East disruption. Regional Tech & Industry: Lam Research plans to invest over US$3b to expand its global R&D lab network, aiming to boost AI-era experiment capacity. Humanitarian: UN reports migrant deaths rising on two European routes in early 2026, with drownings driving the increase.

US–Southeast Asia Defense: US Under Secretary of War for Policy Elbridge Colby says Washington is pursuing “peace through strength,” with deeper defence cooperation across the region while stressing sovereignty and practical deterrence, pointing to progress under the Philippines’ EDCA. Aviation & Travel: South Korea’s Incheon Airport has overtaken Heathrow to become the world’s busiest for international passenger traffic in the first half, underscoring Asia’s travel rebound. Malaysia Tech Push: Malaysia’s VentureTECH invests RM28 million in three Bumiputera-led tech firms spanning industrial automation, healthcare and digital inclusion. Philippines & AI Risk: Capital Economics warns the Philippines could fall behind the AI boom, citing weaker AI-linked electronics export gains and limited readiness to capture productivity benefits. Vietnam Clean Energy: Malaysia’s FatHopes Energy partners PetroVietnam Oil to build Vietnam’s nationwide used cooking oil collection network for certified feedstock for SAF and advanced biofuels. Corporate & Markets: Tata chair N Chandrasekaran’s exit signals tough succession questions for Tata Group; meanwhile, DP World reports resilient 1H 2026 results despite Middle East routing headwinds.

US-China Tech Supply Chain: Apple and other US PC makers are reportedly testing memory chips from China’s CXMT, a Pentagon-blacklisted supplier, as AI and data-centre demand strains “cartel” pricing and forces companies to weigh economics against security politics. Markets & Inflation: Wall Street rose after July CPI came in as expected, easing rate-hike pressure and lifting AI-linked tech names, while the Dow lagged. Philippines Economy: A think tank warns the Philippines’ growth engines are losing steam, with consumer spending weak and inflation-linked oil shocks exposing deeper structural issues. Energy for Industry: The Philippines’ PEZA is exploring an LNG downstream supply system for Calabarzon ecozones to secure reliable, cost-competitive power for local manufacturers. Hong Kong Trade Push: Hong Kong opened a new Economic and Trade Office in Kuala Lumpur, expanding its regional network as ASEAN remains a key trade partner. Retail Payments in Australia: Verifone is rolling out biometric-capable Eftpos devices, letting shoppers pay with facial or palm-vein verification. Cyber Risk: A long-running data theft campaign targeted Salesforce and ServiceNow via overly permissive guest access, researchers say. Digital Security in Thailand: Thailand plans a review of about 30,000 government systems and pushes multi-factor authentication to curb data leaks. Regional Tech Ambition: South Korea unveiled “Seven Major SEED” bets spanning nuclear, fusion, quantum, space, biotech and critical minerals, aiming for a Moon landing by 2030.

Geopolitics & Trade Routes: The Strait of Hormuz remains a flashpoint as Iran weighs tolls and the U.S. and Gulf states push back, while the closure risk is now spilling into the AI supply chain—especially helium used to cool chipmaking tools—raising fears for global semiconductor output. AI & Data Infrastructure: Gulf states are racing to build “data highways” as Red Sea risks force rerouting; Qatar’s Ooredoo is investing heavily in its Fibre in the Gulf cable plan to bypass key chokepoints. Markets: Asian stocks were mixed ahead of U.S. inflation data, with chip-linked gains in South Korea and Japan offset by oil-price pressure tied to West Asia tensions. India Economy: India’s retail inflation accelerated to 4.45% in July, led by food, but is unlikely to force near-term RBI rate hikes. Philippines Energy Policy: A senator wants VAT removed from electricity “system loss” charges, arguing consumers shouldn’t be taxed for power they didn’t use. Renewables: ACEN completed upgrades to its NorthWind wind farm in the Philippines, extending output and adding hundreds of thousands of tonnes of avoided CO2 over the next decade. Tech & Business: Samsung’s Galaxy Z8 foldables are seeing strong pre-order demand across Southeast Asia and Oceania, with the Fold8 leading orders.