AGP Executive Report

Japan–China Trade Talks: Japan’s trade minister Ryosei Akazawa held the first ministerial exchange with China’s Wang Wentao since last year’s diplomatic flare-up, while Japan also pressed Beijing on the safety of Japanese nationals after a Shanghai knife attack. Cambodia Travel Rules: Cambodia’s 2026 visa system is getting more digital and structured, with clearer extension expectations and fewer “wing-it” options for long-stays. Digital Inclusion vs Taxes: A report says telecom tax burdens are choking internet connectivity and digital inclusion in Bangladesh. AI Push in Indonesia: Indonesia is building AI policy on three pillars—rules, ethics, and infrastructure—aiming to scale data centres and partnerships. SEBI Crackdown: India’s market regulator issued an interim order against finfluencers accused of coordinated stock manipulation via social media. Oil Shock Pressure: Fuel hikes across India are accelerating the EV shift as West Asia tensions keep crude prices volatile. South Korea Chips: Semiconductor bonuses are turning into a wider inequality flashpoint as AI spending boosts payouts at Samsung and SK Hynix. APEC Showcase: China’s Shenzhen fair set up a dedicated APEC economies exhibition area, spotlighting regional cultural tourism.

Philippines Anti-Corruption Push: UNODC’s Southeast Asia lead Annika Wythes met Ombudsman Jesus Crispin Remulla to map new work on advanced digital forensics, stronger international cooperation, and a possible unified national anti-corruption framework. Wall Street vs Households: US stocks kept climbing toward an eighth straight winning week even as a survey showed consumer economic confidence hitting a record low. Central Asia Digital & Energy: Uzbekistan and RIPE NCC agreed to expand IPv6, security and network resilience cooperation, while Uzbekistan also moved ahead with Central Asia’s first pumped-storage pilot projects—three plants totalling 1,400 MW by 2032. India Rates in Focus: RBI economists back a rate hike in H2 FY27 as West Asia pressures linger, even as RBI says near-term growth is resilient but “clouded” by supply-side strains. Ghana Financial Innovation: Bank of Ghana’s governor pitched Ghana as an emerging hub for global financial innovation, pointing to e-Cedi pilots and virtual asset rules.

APEC Trade Talks: Trade ministers from 21 APEC economies kicked off a two-day meeting in Suzhou, aiming to keep a free, rules-based trading system alive as protectionism rises and supply chains wobble—especially amid the Iran-linked Strait of Hormuz risk. India Governance: After a 4.5-hour Council of Ministers meeting, PM Modi pushed faster reforms under “Ease of Living” and “Ease of Doing Business,” with ministers briefing roadmaps across sectors and a push for biogas as an LPG alternative. Middle East Shock Ripple: Oil price swings continued to jolt markets, while India’s fertiliser supply took a hit—production at IFFCO’s Paradip plant was suspended due to shortages of imported inputs tied to Gulf shipping disruptions. Singapore Climate Markets: Anew Climate expanded carbon market capabilities in Singapore, betting on higher-integrity credits as demand grows across Asia. Tech & AI Push: Fushi Tech launched a general-purpose AI agent for overseas merchants, positioning it as an “employee” that can handle customer journeys end to end.

Oil Shock & Currencies: Asia is bracing for an “oil shock” as the Strait of Hormuz risk keeps crude prices swinging, pushing governments into tough trade-offs between defending currencies and supporting growth; India is urging people to cut overseas travel and avoid gold, while Indonesia hiked rates and moved to control commodity exports to steady the rupiah. Energy Resilience: ADNOC chief Sultan Al Jaber says the fix is more investment across the value chain plus freedom of navigation, pointing to new pipeline capacity that bypasses Hormuz via Fujairah. Middle East Diplomacy: Pakistan is stepping up efforts to restart US-Iran peace talks, even as both sides harden positions on uranium and Hormuz fees. Markets: Oil’s yo-yoing is driving market whiplash, with Wall Street slipping when crude rises and easing when it falls. Business & Tech: JPMorgan says it’s rolling out AI tools across investment banking globally, while Malaysia’s DRB-HICOM reports a strong Q1 profit jump led by Proton and Bank Muamalat.

Markets Rally on Nvidia + Hormuz Glimmer: Asian stocks jumped as some vessels resumed passage through the Strait of Hormuz and Nvidia’s forecast-beating results reignited chip sentiment, lifting South Korea’s KOSPI and Taiwan tech shares while China was steadier. Energy Pressure Still Lingers: Oil prices eased after the latest Hormuz developments, but supply worries remain as the region stays on edge. Samsung Labour Deal: Samsung Electronics’ workers’ strike was averted after a tentative agreement, with the company expected to boost buybacks to fund semiconductor bonuses. India’s AI Push: Uttar Pradesh CM Yogi Adityanath ordered talks with major tech firms and plans for a data-centre cluster to build an “AI City” beyond the NCR. Healthcare Policy: India’s health minister urged AI in medicine to be guided by regulation, research, ethics and equity at the World Health Assembly in Geneva. Tech Infrastructure: Sparkle rolled out quantum-safe interconnect services across Equinix data centres, while Güntner launched a dedicated data-centre cooling division.

Energy & Diplomacy: Canada’s PM-designate Carney is pushing B.C. to accept a new Alberta-to-coast oil pipeline, but only if B.C. gets benefits, a major carbon-capture project is built, and Indigenous consultation is meaningful—while B.C. Premier Eby calls the Alberta deal “rewarding bad behavior.” Middle East Shock: The UN says the energy crisis is dragging on global growth, with inflation risks rising as the Strait of Hormuz stays effectively blocked. Markets & Costs: Bond turmoil is spreading from Washington to London to Tokyo, lifting borrowing costs and keeping investors wary across Asia. Trade & Security: India and Italy upgraded ties to a special strategic partnership, targeting €20 billion in trade by 2029 and agreeing a defence industrial roadmap, including cooperation on shipping through Hormuz. Private Capital: Developed Asia is drawing fresh private equity as LPs prioritise exits and realised returns, with Japan leading the shift. Asia Dealflow: Grab is set to consolidate Indonesia’s Superbank into its financial services after GXS Bank’s stake build-up.

Indonesia Economy: President Prabowo just laid out 2027 targets in a rare parliament address—fiscal deficit at 1.8% to 2.4% of GDP and growth at 5.8% to 6.5%—while promising institutional reforms and more room for private firms. Global Outlook: The UN cut its global growth forecast to 2.5% for 2026, blaming Middle East-linked inflation pressure and uncertainty, with Western Asia hit hardest. Geopolitics: China and Russia doubled down on their “unyielding” ties in Beijing talks with Putin, days after Trump’s visit, as energy and regional issues stayed front and centre. Business Risk: Allianz Commercial says war has overtaken civil unrest as the top political violence risk for companies across Europe and Asia-Pacific. AI & Finance: Singapore’s AI push continues—ATxSummit opened with AI collaboration themes—and Franklin Templeton is partnering with DigiFT to distribute tokenised funds across Asia. Tech Markets: China and Hong Kong stocks slid on inflation and Middle East worries, while Asia’s construction and insurer focus remains on governance and delay risks.

US-China Flashpoint: Xi warned Trump that the Taiwan question is the “most important” issue and that mishandling it could trigger clashes, as analysts point to China’s push for readiness by 2027. Russia-China Diplomacy: Putin landed in Beijing to underline “unshakeable ties” after Trump’s China visit, with energy and transport links like “Power of Siberia 2” on the agenda. Middle East Shockwaves: The Iran-linked energy and security fallout is still rattling Asia—peso weakness is worsening, and oil-price stress continues to pressure regional currencies and markets. ASEAN Focus: A survey says the Philippines is most visible on sovereignty and South China Sea issues, but still trails on broader problem-solving across Southeast Asia. Energy & Trade: Canada signed a deal to ship 1 million barrels a day to Asia via a West Coast pipeline push, while Indonesia secured $60.3m in China trade deals at SIAL. Tech & Industry: Dell says agentic AI is breaking cloud economics and forcing data-centre rebuilds; Japan bets on “physical AI” for factory robots.

AI Reshapes Workforces: Standard Chartered says it will cut over 15% of back-office roles by 2030 as it scales automation and AI, aiming to lift returns and productivity. Physical AI Push: Hitachi and Anthropic will set up a global “Frontier AI Deployment Center” to promote physical AI use across energy, transport, manufacturing and finance. Geopolitics and Markets: Trump delays a planned Iran attack after Gulf requests, helping markets stabilise after choppy trading and oil swings. Regional Tech and Infrastructure: Sangfor held a Bangkok forum on VMware alternatives as enterprises modernise for AI; Aon’s APAC construction report flags resilience but rising insurer focus on catastrophe exposure and project governance. Water and Connectivity: Singapore International Water Week’s Water Expo opens trade registration, while Indonesia’s Nusantara 5 satellite starts operations to expand internet capacity. Security and Sovereignty: A Philippines survey result highlights growing maritime diplomacy visibility in South China Sea disputes. Energy Transition in Motion: LG Energy Solution, Honda and Hanoi back battery swapping for electric two-wheelers, with a pilot starting in Q3. Labour Watch: Samsung strike fears could shave 0.5 percentage point off South Korea’s growth, according to the Bank of Korea.

West Asia Shock Hits Markets: Fresh Gulf drone attacks and a near-closed Strait of Hormuz are pushing oil and bond yields higher, with investors bracing for inflation and growth stress as G7 finance ministers meet in Paris. India Watch: SEBI chief Tuhin Kanta Pandey says Indian markets can absorb “different types of shocks,” even as the rupee slides and energy costs feed volatility. Regulator Action: RBI slapped ₹8.90 lakh in penalties on Appnit Technologies and IIFL Finance over KYC and NBFC compliance lapses. Tech & Policy: China’s April data shows slower consumption and factory output growth, underscoring weak domestic demand. AI in Africa: Ghana launched a 10-year AI plan and a Publican AI custom platform to modernise tax administration. Health Tech: Taiwan approved HistoSonics’ Edison Histotripsy system, advancing non-invasive tumour treatment across Asia. Deals: Bain Capital closed Asia Fund VI at $10.5b, and AD Ports agreed to buy German freight forwarder MBS Logistics for AED300m.

West Asia Shock Hits Markets: A drone attack on the UAE’s Barakah nuclear facility and fresh Strait of Hormuz fears sent oil above $110, dragging Asian stocks lower and pushing India’s Sensex and Nifty down in early trade as the rupee and bond sentiment came under pressure. China Growth, But Deflation Lingers: China’s Q1 GDP rose 5.0%, yet April consumption and factory output slowed to the weakest pace in years, keeping deflation worries alive. US-China Taiwan Noise, Little Change in Practice: The Trump-Xi summit sparked Taiwan headlines, but regional analysts say substance hasn’t shifted—just the language around “strategic stability.” Energy Security Push: India and others are turning to ethanol and biofuels to cut fossil-fuel dependence, while HSBC unveiled a $4b credit facility to help Chinese clean-tech scale globally. Business Moves: Bain Capital closed its sixth Asia fund at $10.5b, and Asiacell inked a landmark PSG partnership in Iraq.

Markets Jolt: Wall Street slid off record highs as higher oil prices hit bonds and tech-led rallies cooled, dragging the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq lower and pointing to a weaker ASX open. Rupee Under Pressure: India’s rupee sank past 96 per dollar, with officials and the central bank trying to curb depreciation as foreign outflows and costly energy imports bite. West Asia Shockwave: A 20,000-ton LPG shipment reached Kandla after crossing the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran signals it may seek fees from tech firms using subsea cables—raising new uncertainty for global trade routes. APEC Trade Focus: APEC’s “China Year” builds momentum ahead of the Suzhou ministers’ meeting on May 22-23, with talks on digital trade and reducing cross-border barriers. Philippines Resilience Push: Manila signed a UNESCAP trust fund deal for climate and disaster preparedness and is eyeing ADB financing for critical minerals supply chains. Business Moves: Prudential agreed to buy 75% of Bharti Life for ₹3,500 crore, and ICEYE plans an India production hub for small satellites.

Energy Shock at Sea: Shipping firms are bracing for fuel shortages as the Iran war disrupts the Strait of Hormuz, tightening supplies of bunker fuel—already hitting Singapore, the world’s biggest refuelling hub—and pushing costs up while companies cut speeds and rethink routes. Diplomacy & Finance: Hong Kong’s Paul Chan is set for a five-day Europe trip to discuss counter-terror financing and attract business, pitching stability as the key to investment. Taiwan Tensions: Trump’s latest remarks calling Taiwan arms sales a “negotiating chip” with China are stoking fresh anxieties on the island. South Asia Security Row: Pakistan’s military media wing hit back at an Indian army chief’s “geography and history” comments, warning against any escalation. India’s Fuel Pressure: CNG prices rose again in Delhi-NCR, while petrol and diesel remain elevated amid the oil shock. Tech & Payments: PayPal is expanding in Sri Lanka via local banks, aiming to boost cross-border payments for small businesses. Markets Watch: Investors are increasingly focused on bond yields as a risk to the AI-led tech rally.

AI Race: Kazakhstan says it’s leading Central Asia and the EAEU in AI adoption, with 15.9% of people using AI-related services (ranked 70th globally in Microsoft’s Global AI Diffusion). Space & Industry: Germany’s “new space” push is framed as a fast-growing $600 billion market, with private investment pouring into both launch infrastructure and space-based data services. West Asia Shock: India’s fuel squeeze keeps spreading—Delhi cut ATF VAT from 25% to 7%, while the Strait of Hormuz disruption reportedly cut India’s LPG imports by 430 kb/d in March–April. Economy & Politics: Bangladesh warns the banking crisis must be fixed to stop economic decline, while Nepal seeks a UN LDC graduation delay citing vulnerability to West Asia tensions. Geopolitics: Putin heads to Beijing for talks with Xi next week as US-China diplomacy continues to shape the wider region. Markets: Tech stocks slid after earnings jitters, with new-age names mostly down after lock-in expiries.

Energy Shock & Markets: Oil prices and bond yields jolted global stocks again, with US tech leading the slide after record highs as investors priced in longer inflation pressure. India Fuel Pressure: India’s petrol and diesel were hiked by ₹3 a litre, with CNG up in Delhi and Mumbai, while the Supreme Court and the power ministry pushed fuel-saving work-from-home and virtual hearings. Politics at Home: Opposition parties attacked the government over the fuel rise, while Modi denied any plan for a foreign-travel tax. UAE-India Energy Deal: Modi’s Abu Dhabi stopover locked in major energy pacts, including UAE support for India’s strategic oil storage and LPG cooperation, as West Asia tensions keep the Strait of Hormuz risk front and centre. BRICS Split: BRICS foreign ministers in New Delhi failed to agree on a joint statement, exposing Iran-UAE differences over the West Asia crisis. Aviation Link: Etihad and Uzbekistan Airways signed a codeshare, expanding Central Asia access via Abu Dhabi. Science: Thailand researchers identified a giant new dinosaur species, “Nagatitan chaiyaphumensis,” the largest ever found in Southeast Asia.

Digital Connectivity: Telkom Indonesia has inaugurated the Pukpuk Submarine Cable System (Puk-Puk 1) in Papua, a new cross-border link aimed at boosting Eastern Indonesia’s connectivity and strengthening Indonesia–Papua New Guinea telecom ties. Diplomacy Deadlock: BRICS foreign ministers in Delhi failed to agree on a joint statement, with Iran and the UAE clashing over the West Asia war—India issued only a chair’s statement. Energy Shock Meets Markets: Global stocks slid and oil jumped after US–China talks raised fresh doubts over reopening the Strait of Hormuz, feeding inflation fears; in India, the rupee hit a record low near 96/$ and shares fell as crude pushed costs higher. Social Protection Push: Bangladesh’s BNP government is drafting a budget that would massively expand its welfare safety net, targeting millions more under a family-centric protection framework. Tech & Security: Indonesia plans to extend its under-16 social media ban to e-commerce, while Asia’s counter-drone push keeps accelerating as countries learn from recent conflicts.